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Author Topic: How to win at Draftkings (daily fantasy sports) NFL  (Read 50887 times)
Egor
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« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2015, 05:52:51 AM »

I'm not liking the 50/50's as much as I did in my first post. I still think buying three good pass-catching running backs should be +EV but the vig on these things is taken by paying less places, and by my math it's worse than the 10% juice you pay for heads up matches (at least in the $50 massive double-up). And the problem with playing 10 $5 heads up matches instead is you need to hit 60% to come out $4 ahead, less than a thrilling prospect.

I got the roll so I think I'm going to stick to the big $3 GPP's.

On the bright side I made money on college football Saturday, and I seem to be on an NHL hot streak.  beer
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GreenFish
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2015, 11:58:36 PM »

Yes,  My original takeout concerns are coming into play on the close ones.  Well over 10% ,when less than half the field wins.      Since I was close,  I think I'll give it another go this weekend though.      Hockey is really more my Sport so I will be looking at that a little closer as well.    beer
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GreenFish
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« Reply #22 on: October 21, 2015, 06:14:49 PM »

I Made enough at Hockey this week to fund my Football Picks thumbsup beer
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« Reply #23 on: October 21, 2015, 06:20:49 PM »

Yeah same thing with me. I like to mix stars with players on an underdog team.

In football this is what we're up against:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-fantasy-sports-wizards-winning-formula-wsj-money-june-2014-1401893587
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GreenFish
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« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2015, 04:39:16 PM »

Yeah same thing with me. I like to mix stars with players on an underdog team.

In football this is what we're up against:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-fantasy-sports-wizards-winning-formula-wsj-money-june-2014-1401893587

    I have seen some examples of this on a smaller scale as well.   I do believe that your original post about it being full of fish is still holding merit.  The Sharks however are definitely circling.   When I cashed in at hockey the other day I bet $3.00 and won $40.00.   The Guy who finished right behind me had ( 29 Teams )  , so for an $87.00 investment he cashed for $1,160.00 , and many are playing it that way.     I believe if they don't find a way to cap how many entries per team you have ,the Sharks will chase the fish out. It will become like online poker where the rec. players just tire of re depositing to feed the sharks.   Having said that ,I still think there is a window of opportunity for an astute player to win a  share from the  fish that are still playing.     beer thanks  beer beer
« Last Edit: October 25, 2015, 02:52:01 PM by GreenFish » Logged

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« Reply #25 on: October 22, 2015, 06:19:53 PM »

Well it's similar to a lottery player buying every possible combination of numbers -- only they are narrowing it down to a manageable number of entries based on a core of good players they are choosing. they cash much more often doing this, but of course the risk is larger and the cold streaks will wipe you out much faster if you aren't a whale.

I looked around on the web for tools for sale that will do this and found one:

https://www.spreadsheet-sports.com/

haven't tried it yet and might give it a whirl for NBA when the season starts
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« Reply #26 on: October 27, 2015, 04:44:26 AM »

I think I'm done with these weekly leagues.

There may have been some fish before, but the landscape has quickly changed.

Here are the lowest scoring ITM scores for each tourny I was in this week:
173
176
176
178
168

And three of these were beginner tournies.

I managed 150 and 147 for this week, and these scores would have mostly landed me ITM on some previous weeks.

I'm just thinking that this isn't for me and that I'm the fish.

I'll stick with normal fantasy football. I have done well playing a normal seasonal format and have won a majority of NFL.com prize tournies (won 2 autographed footballs, an autographed jersey, and a game coin in just a couple years).

I'll leave the weekly stuff to the guys running statistical tools entered into hundreds of lineups, and the company employees switching sites knowing what the percentages of players chosen will be.

Good luck out there guys.  boxing


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« Reply #27 on: October 27, 2015, 06:58:20 PM »

I still think it's +EV to put a pass-catching running back (who is playing a weak run defense) in the flex position in double-ups.  My problem with these is the "rake" structure as I mentioned in an earlier post.

I am actually now more partial to triple-ups with 3 entrants winner-take all. The rake is removed as a % of the prize pool here which is much more manageable. But of course the variance is higher.

For larger GPP's, if you're not going to use spreadsheets  to create a mass number of entries built around a carefully-arrived-at core group of players (with matchup being a prime consideration) then I think the way to play is try to pick upsets and stack multiple players from your upset pick mixed with a core group of solid picks. You need the underdog to surprise everyone with a ton of offensive points. When the upset hits like this it is much easier to score a significant prize because it simultaneously tanks a lot of your competition.
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« Reply #28 on: October 27, 2015, 07:24:41 PM »

I will be looking for decent paying Tournaments , that are still paying out a nice rate for mid finishes.  The Variance will be high but a good payout would clear that up.   I believe you are right about finding a team that has high point upset potential.  This along with catching the weeks highest point favorites .  The margins seem tight between winning and losing, because of limited player choices and prices.    beer beer  
« Last Edit: October 28, 2015, 09:04:44 PM by GreenFish » Logged

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« Reply #29 on: October 29, 2015, 11:07:25 PM »

I made enough on Hockey this week  to play some  Football tournaments.   I was thinking Atlanta has some good potential this weekend ?   Any suggestions ? beer beer beer
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« Reply #30 on: October 29, 2015, 11:17:56 PM »

Atlanta = good at passing, Tampa = bad at defending pass + Julio Jones is due for a good game

then you need cheap guys for the rest of the card like Stefan Diggs, Delanie Walker for TE, ...but Gurley is must-own RB, and you'll have to find some sleepers to fill that out  thumbsup

...and if you don't want to play against the guys submitting 200+ entries from spreadsheets go for the "single entry" GPP's

 rockout
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« Reply #31 on: October 31, 2015, 05:21:31 PM »

Interesting matchup info there, but I don't see any way to create multiple entries.
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GreenFish
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« Reply #32 on: October 31, 2015, 05:30:36 PM »

 Draft Kings lets you roll with your team - into various Tournaments.   Usually if our choices were set there would only be minor adjustments in the roster anyway?  I think I will put the team I like in the Tourneys of choice, and then tweak each one after.   Somewhere along the line we have to luck out on the core group.  If our top choices don't produce we are toast anyways.   beer thanks beer
« Last Edit: November 02, 2015, 02:00:03 PM by GreenFish » Logged

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« Reply #33 on: October 31, 2015, 08:36:22 PM »

Stepping up a little more this week.    15 entries in 10 Contests .  beer beer     Go Matt Ryan and Atlanta. boxing
« Last Edit: November 01, 2015, 01:05:04 AM by GreenFish » Logged

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« Reply #34 on: November 01, 2015, 09:49:48 PM »

12 out 15 in the money .  Profit - about 5 times my investment,   Amazing considering Atlanta lost.     Good supporting cast chosen thumbsup beer beer    
Hope you did well Egor....   P.S.-   A lot of this was you Egor     M.Ryan - 25.08
                                                                                                   D Freeman - 19.1
                                                                                                   TGurley - 26.6
                                                                                                   Diggs - 21.5
                                                                                                   S. Johnson - 4.8
                                                                                                    J Jones - 36.2
                                                                                                   Benj. Watson 32.7
                                                                                                   C. johnson - 11.5
                                                                                                   Texans - 20
                                                                                                      TOTAL - 197.88  thumbsup thanks



« Last Edit: November 10, 2015, 03:49:08 PM by GreenFish » Logged

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« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2015, 11:06:29 PM »

Nice  rockout

where you'd pull Benj. Watson from? Nice sleeper!  sleep
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« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2015, 11:26:02 PM »

Watson was mentioned  on some of  sites I researched as a possible sleeper  .      thumbsup beer thanks beer
« Last Edit: November 02, 2015, 01:52:56 PM by GreenFish » Logged

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« Reply #37 on: November 05, 2015, 01:42:03 AM »

Some  good Regulars with favorable matchups - QB - Brady ,Brees, Roethlisberger   RB- M Ingram , A Peterson, T Gurley,  WR - Odell Beckham , Julio Jones . TE - Rob Gronowski , Tyler Eifer   DST - Den,  Philly     .     Will definitely need some good sleepers this week as these guys will be well picked . Huh? beer beer beer
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« Reply #38 on: November 05, 2015, 02:02:12 AM »

Love Ashlon Jeffries  at WR thumbsup
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GreenFish
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« Reply #39 on: November 05, 2015, 02:11:30 AM »

His matchup looks favorable , and his price is 6700 , so will definitely use him in some WR slots.. thumbsup thanks beer
« Last Edit: November 05, 2015, 03:31:04 PM by GreenFish » Logged

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