Your math is a little off here. I know it can be confusing.

40% of time option 1

40% of

**remaining time** option 2 means .4 x .6 = 24% of the time for option 2

that will leave 60% of the missed first option which is .6 x .6 = 36% of the time for option 3

An easy fix for what you want will be:

When user_4bet and random <= 20 raise 90% force

When user_4bet and random <= 50 raise 75% force

When user_4bet raise 85% force