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Shanky Technologies Poker Bot Support Forum  |  General Category  |  Marketplace: Add-on Software and Services  |  Topic: **Free** Profile Required Sample Size Calculator 0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
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Author Topic: **Free** Profile Required Sample Size Calculator  (Read 4365 times)
mickles
Sellers
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Shanky Bonus Bots Rock!


« on: November 03, 2010, 02:17:50 AM »

For those of you that read my thread on variance, I've made a simple calculator that allows you to input your winrate, SD/100, and sample size, and will calculate whether or not that sample size is adequate.

Here's the link:
http://www.shankybotprofiles.com/samplesize.php

Note:
- If you put in a negative winrate, the calculator will switch to the number of hands needed to prove it's a loser
- SD/100 is also sample size dependent.  If you have a very small sample size, then your standard deviation may be much lower if you simply haven't experienced much variance yet.  In my experience, the standard deviation is fairly close to being accurate by 20-30k hands.  Just be aware that you could have a situation where you have 5-10k hands with a low standard deviation and the calculator only says you need 15k. This will almost always be wrong!.  Even a profile that is absolutely crushing with very low variance will need at least 20-30k hands.

For those of you who don't want to read the thread, here are the cliff notes:

Cliff Notes:
  • Standard deviation is the square root of variance (which tells us how "swingy" a profile is)
  • Everyone should report standard deviation for profiles along with winrate and sample size (only winrate is a more important stat for determining profile performance).
  • Sample size required to declare a profile a winner is specific only to that profile and depends on the standard deviation and winrate
  • There is no one sample size that covers all profiles.  High winrate and low SD/100, and 50k hands is enough.  Winrate of 0.5BB/100 & SD/100 of 45BB and you need 3 million hands.
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Just4Fun
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Shanky Bonus Bots Rock!


« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2010, 04:25:36 PM »

Great tool!

Apparently i need to play additionally 50k hands Smiley
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Transporter
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Labora dure, lude durius !


« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2011, 10:14:48 AM »

super tool, everybody should read this, use this and understand this !
all sellers should provide a winrate, samplesize and sd with their profile so everyone can take a decision on their own.

T!
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DEUCE
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because sometimes you have to give them candy


« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2011, 10:36:44 AM »

only problem is if they alter their graph then the customer is getting false data to punch into this thing. But I love this tool for my own testing!
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mickles
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Shanky Bonus Bots Rock!


« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2011, 05:48:58 PM »

If they altered the graph then the sample size is probably the least of your worries.

If it sounds too good to be true, then it probably is. 
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mickles
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Shanky Bonus Bots Rock!


« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2011, 04:20:03 PM »

Hum, it's actually not down.

I moved my DNS some weeks ago and it looks like I made a typo for www

This will work now, and the link in the OP will work as soon as DNS changes propagate.
http://shankybotprofiles.com/samplesize.php
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SmirnoffAllstar
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Posts: 31


« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2014, 11:51:55 AM »

Is there still a working link for this, or would anyone who still got the tool re-upload it?
 bowdown thanks
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Cyclo
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« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2016, 02:52:05 AM »

Does this tool still work? If so any new link?
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::::Cyclo::::
ykcip75
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Shanky Bonus Bots Rock!


« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2016, 09:02:51 AM »

There is one simulator for cash games and also for MTT at :

http://pokerdope.com/
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polarbear
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Karma: 6
Posts: 37


« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2016, 09:48:06 AM »

As far as I can see the link goes to a scam and crack website.
Maybe Egor should remove that link.
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id_cry_too
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Karma: 1
Posts: 28


« Reply #10 on: February 14, 2018, 03:19:27 AM »

Looks sketchy
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