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« on: June 04, 2017, 08:35:39 PM »

"Beginner's luck", "luck of the beginner", we often hear these terms in the world of poker. But few people believe it, while the luck of the beginner is a real phenomenon.

The false arguments

Poker is rigged

Some people believe that the rooms will voluntarily encourage new players by rigging decks in their favor. While it is true that most rooms have a policy of preserving recreational players, for example with spins & go or anonymous tables, there is no reason to believe that they would take the absurd risk of cheating.

The reversed skill

This is the favorite argument of lucky beginners, who imagine that their lack of knowledge gives them an edge. It gives a "yeah my opponent knows thousands of classical patterns, but against me it doesn't work because I am out of these schemas".

The absence of pressure

In a pro vs beginner game, the beginner would play released "at worst if I lose it's normal" while the pro would suffer all the pressure "I can still not lose against a beginner". This might be true with some people in some areas, but it's generally deadly wrong, especially in poker. Good luck to the fish who wants to stress Negreanu.

Real arguments

Unlucky ones stop

You go to the casino and lack of luck there is no opened poker table. For the first time in your life, you decide to play roulette. Your neighbor begins the conversation and you explain that you have never played it but that the session is going well and that you are largely positive. With a knowing connoisseur, he replies "It's normal, all beginners are lucky". He himself remembers having had a lot in his early days. Calmly, you explain to him that it is absurd and that it is not because both of you had the beginner's luck that it is necessary to generalize. To make sure, he proposes to you to make a survey in the casino. The overwhelming majority of players claim to have been lucky beginners ... Is this a conspiracy?
The explanation is simple: a casino is composed of a majority of players who were lucky in their early days because those who had not never set their foot in a casino often !

Overexposure and confirmation bias

At the 2015 WSOP, Christian Pham had a little surprise when, at the beginning of a $ 1500 event, the dealer distributed 5 cards to him. He thought he'd signed up for a Holdem tournament, the only variant he knew, but it was a 2-7 triple draw. His neighbor quickly explained to him the rules' 2-3-4-5-7 it's the nuts and 2-3-4-6-7 the second nuts. "Pham won the event in front of his 216 opponents.
Even non-specialized newspapers have titled "Beginner's Luck: he mistakenly enters the poker world championship and wins the title without knowing the rules."
Obviously, no one has spoken of the hundreds of beginners who have registered at various WSOP events and have been eliminated on day 1. Let's also note that Pham is a pro player of Holdem, which gives a certain edge compared to all beginners.

Generally speaking, there is a confirmation bias: as soon as you see a beginner win, we talk about the luck of the beginner, when a beginner loses, we say that it is normal and not "oh it's weird, he didn't have the Beginner's Luck ".

Regression to the mean.

Everyone knows that in the end, luck and bad luck balance. We can conclude that if a beginner is not necessarily extremely lucky, any extremely lucky player can only be a beginner. If a player boasts of having only experienced positive sessions, you can be sure that he or she begins and therefore, contrary to what he thinks, that he should not be strong.

We do not talk about the luck of the pro.

When Fedor Holz wins a tournament, you can be sure of two things: he played great and he was lucky, because even him needs it to win an MTT. But of course, we will talk about the "genius Fedor Holz" and not the "Extremely lucky Fedor Holz".
On the other hand, as soon as a beginner wins a hand, especially if he has made a mistake, obviously it can not be attributed to his skill and so we speak of luck.
There are more beginners than experts ...
... and therefore more lucky newbies than lucky experts. If you make a small cash game with 5 or 6 buddies, all beginners, you are clearly EV+, but it is likely that the biggest winner of the evening, especially if you play a few hands, is a beginner.

A game more high variance.

By their bad decisions, the beginners expose themselves more to luck. For example a beginner can pay without the odds of a draw and get his card, while a reg would fold. On the same number of hands, a beginner will have a priori more opportunities to be lucky than a reg.

Interesting article by petiteglise (poker-academie.com)
« Last Edit: June 06, 2017, 09:16:47 AM by ykcip75 » Logged
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Shanky Technologies Poker Bot Support Forum  |  General Category  |  Gambling Theory (Moderator: sngbot)  |  Topic: Why beginner's luck really exists...
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