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Shanky Technologies Poker Bot Support Forum  |  General Category  |  Discussion Board (Moderator: sngbot)  |  Topic: They seem to know they will win. How do they do it? 0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
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XL5
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« on: December 05, 2015, 12:17:00 AM »

Sometimes, in a small stakes tournament like today, the chip leader will do nothing for maybe 10 or 15 hands and then go All In, UTG, with a K9 off suit.  He is called by AK suited and yet, he wins with a pair of 9s.  Almost like he knew before betting that he had the winning hand.  Coincidence?  Or something else? How do they know?
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Egor
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« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2015, 12:35:12 AM »

Coincidence.  tinfoilhat.gif

You don't remember the times they lose.
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Please do not PM me about license issues or help stuff - email me or use the Help board. Thanks! -Egor
beholdem
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« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2015, 06:33:49 AM »

I believe this happens in all kinds of tournaments.

Chipleaders are usually quite lucky during that session.

Check out this dude! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwnQiqXUHOM
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ykcip75
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« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2015, 06:40:45 AM »

You should learn at least basic preflop ALL-IN probabilities to understand what happens because a lot poker players especially beginners think their hands should win more often than it does.

- Higher Pair vs Lower Pair ex: QQ vs 99 (the lower pair wins 1 out of 5 times)
- Higher kicker vs Lower Kicker ex: AJ vs AT (lower kicker wins 1 out of 4 times to 3 out of 10 times)
- 2 Higher unpaired cards vs 2 lower unpaired cards ex: AK vs 83 (2 lower unpaired cards wins 1 out of 3 times)
- Any Two Cards vs Any Two Cards between those two cards : A6 vs K8 (The two cards between wins 2 out of 5 times)
- Any Two Cards vs One card between those two cards and one card lower : J8 vs 93 (The two cards between wins 35 out of 100 times)
- Any Pair vs Two unpaired cards higher than the pair ex: 88 vs TJ (the two cards wins 45 out of 100 times (it's almost a coinflip))
- Any Pair vs Two unpaired cards Lower than the pair ex: TT vs 74 (the two cards wins 15 out of 100 times)
- Any Pair vs One card with the same value as the pair and one card higher than the pair ex: 77 vs A7 (One card with the same value as the pair and one card higher wins 3 out of 10 times)
- Any Pair vs One card with the same value as the pair and one card lower than the pair ex: JJ vs J7 (One card with the same value as the pair and one card lower than the pair wins 1 out of 10 times)
- Any Pair vs One card higher and one card lower than the pair ex: 88 vs T7 (One card higher and one card lower than the pair wins 3 out of 10 times)

I think I have covered all the cases but if there is one missing tell me, so when you are going all-in with your AJ and the big stack call you with A9 or vice-versa, it's like the game of guess my number between 1 and 4
if you are right take all my chips and I am kicked out of this tournament, if you are wrong I take from your stack the equivalent of my stack and sometimes people are lucky in this game and it frustrates a lot of people.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2015, 07:01:04 AM by ykcip75 » Logged
XL5
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« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2015, 11:50:56 AM »

I believe this happens in all kinds of tournaments.

Chipleaders are usually quite lucky during that session.

Check out this dude! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwnQiqXUHOM

That was an incredible series of 3 videos.  I watched every minute and it was fascinating how Joe McKeehan seemed to hit every flop.  Of course he played well but I have never hit that many flops or got that many top 10 hands in a tournament.  Thanks for the link.
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