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Author Topic: How to win at Draftkings (daily fantasy sports) NFL  (Read 50893 times)
GreenFish
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« Reply #40 on: November 06, 2015, 03:19:48 PM »

Missed Tyler Eifer on my entries , he had a big night and was one of two best rated TE matchups.  ( I went with Barnridge from Clev- lol ,  too many beers before entering) .  At least it seems like the matchup  thing has merit.    I went  similar to last week as far as investment.  12 entries and I mixed it up a little more. beer beer beer
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« Reply #41 on: November 06, 2015, 06:25:14 PM »

I got him on one of mine, but unfortunately I also have AJ Green and Dalton on that one and the numbers aren't great especially for Green.

I think you want to pick running backs playing teams at the bottom of this list:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/rushing/position/defense

and receivers playing teams at the bottom of this list:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/passing/position/defense

...and any serious GPP entry needs to have Rivers as QB until further notice (+ Gates as TE if you didn't have Eifert)

So Freeman is must-play RB. A lot of people will be on Langford, replacing Forte and cheap with a good matchup. I like Jonathan Stewart as well since he gets a ton of touches and the Packers aren't great against the run. And Ingram is a good choice against a middle-of-the-pack run defense plus after that huge Drew brees game they figure to keep it on the ground against a team that isn't much of a scoring threat. And finally, Gurly is still under-priced and probbaly still gets his numbers even against a decent run defense (that is still not a top-10 run defense).

Receivers are tougher to pick and that's how you win. Crabtree is a good value, and if you need a cheap one Stevie Johnson figures to pay his salary since Keenan Johnson is out. But as far as which elite receiver to pay up for goes that's the challenge. Personally I'm staying away from Edelman this week and would rather have Gronk as a piece of Brady in a 62 o/u game as he's cheaper and just as likely (if not more) to put up the big numbers.

You could make a pretty good case for Cousins as QB + a couple of his receivers as they figure to fall behind early. That also means Dion Lewis might be a decent back.
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GreenFish
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« Reply #42 on: November 06, 2015, 06:46:27 PM »

I mixed a few of your choices in a couple more entries.   14 will be plenty for this weekend.    Good Luck with your picks beer thanks thumbsup
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GreenFish
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« Reply #43 on: November 09, 2015, 03:11:35 PM »

Sunday picks didn't get to the top.  I still have three entries with Stevie Johnson that could bail me out for the weekend,  As long as a lot of others aren't waiting on him as well.. beer beer popcorn beer
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« Reply #44 on: November 09, 2015, 06:06:38 PM »

Pretty pissed I forgot about De Angelo Williams. I meant to take him in some of my lineups but he was so cheap he wasn't even on the radar  banghead -- Gurly, Lewis, and Ingram were all a letdown. Devonte Freeman still came through to some degree, as always.

I had tickets with Marcus Mariota + Delanie Walker, Carr + Crabtree, and Tyrod + Sammy Watkins -- but didn't fill the rest of the cards in right  smash

Now I just hope I cash a couple tickets on Rivers + Gates + Stevie Johnson tonight
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GreenFish
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« Reply #45 on: November 10, 2015, 04:58:04 AM »

Cashed 3 out of 14 entries. The cashes kept my losses for the Weekend  reasonable  , it could have been worse.   Lets fine tune for next week and get er done. thumbsup beer
« Last Edit: November 11, 2015, 06:22:55 PM by GreenFish » Logged

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« Reply #46 on: November 11, 2015, 09:20:22 PM »

I came out a little ahead on NFL.

OK so I did all my own research last night and made all my own lineups before reading the gurus picks this week. This is what I came up with:

QB: Brady, Brees, Dalton, Rodgers, Bortles

RB: D Murray, Lamar Miller, L Blount --- and those are the only guys I like this week!

TE: Eifert, Reed, Olsen, Walker

High-end receivers to work in: Edelman, Hopkins, O. Beckman

Cheap receivers: Beasley, K. Thompkins, R Randle, N Washington, B. Laffell

Mid-range receivers: A Robinson, Crabtree, M Bryant, J Matthews, Cobb
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GreenFish
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« Reply #47 on: November 17, 2015, 12:29:08 AM »

Tough weekend for me, nothing in contention for tonight.   There was some high scores and a lot of mix and match players to complete the winners cards .  Still riding on my winnings ,so not panicking.  They are Tourneys and there will be variance.   We will just take stock and prepare for next week.  Hopefully Hockey is kinder for a couple of days.    beer
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« Reply #48 on: November 17, 2015, 01:09:21 AM »

Not knowing if Big ben is playing until the kickoff hurts. And who would think of taking any QB against Seattle? Tough weekend....
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GreenFish
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« Reply #49 on: November 18, 2015, 09:13:50 PM »

I was wondering about Brady and Gronkowski as the two key guys to build around this week Huh? beer
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« Reply #50 on: November 18, 2015, 09:34:38 PM »

Those guys always seem safe. You want to win a GPP you need some contrarian low ownership % picks, though.

I'll probably just keep taking Rivers + Gates myself.
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« Reply #51 on: November 18, 2015, 09:51:15 PM »

It seems like the winners and losers in these , are not far removed.  I always seem to have 3 or 4  in common with them , so yes, the key still comes down to luck with "sleepers".   I do agree, probably shouldn't change from players that you have been loyal to, and have them break out.    .gif beer beer
« Last Edit: November 25, 2015, 11:56:51 AM by GreenFish » Logged

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« Reply #52 on: November 18, 2015, 10:52:18 PM »

I'm unto cheaper running backs this time of season as I'm tired of the biggies  like Freeman and Gurly disappointing. At least with a $5,000 back if they only put up 15 it's okay because you can make it up with more expensive receivers.

That said this weeks backs for me are looking like D. McFadden and C. West
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« Reply #53 on: November 19, 2015, 01:18:20 AM »

Those Guys are off everyone else's Radar.   If  they produce they will add good hidden value .   I will put them in some lineups. thanks beer
« Last Edit: November 25, 2015, 11:57:24 AM by GreenFish » Logged

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« Reply #54 on: November 19, 2015, 01:32:05 AM »

 lol I've already read two gurus touting them so they are not really low flyers. I actually upgraded to Blount from Mcfadden on two of my rosters because one of the gurus made a compelling case that the Pats will go run heavy.

I've decided to stick with my tight-end: D. Walker. He's gotta hit for me sometime. What you said earlier about approaching DFS a little more like a season-long league really resonated with me. Where was that advice on week 2?  Tongue

I'm off Rivers though, and going with: Bortles, Newt, and Stafford (+ C. Johnson on that one)

And I've decided to pay up for Freeman in the flex position and fit the other guys around him, since my QB's are value plays.

Other receivers I like: E Decker, J Matthews, D Thomas, S Johnson (still way too cheap)

Other backs: Woodhead and M Lynch (should be low % owned)
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« Reply #55 on: November 19, 2015, 01:50:11 AM »

Oh and I should mention if you don't necessarily buy into the Pats taking a running game approach then Amendola makes a compelling receiver for the price with Edelman out.
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GreenFish
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« Reply #56 on: November 19, 2015, 02:16:26 AM »

I wonder if the times Brady finds   TE  Gronkowski ,  costs the Pats "Receivers"  some fantasy points.  Will check out some of your  guys, and make adjustments as we can always tweak the lineups. beer   PS - Freeman sounds good when cost allows..  thanks beer        Here's to a winning weekend. beer
« Last Edit: November 20, 2015, 02:19:30 AM by GreenFish » Logged

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GreenFish
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« Reply #57 on: November 23, 2015, 04:38:54 AM »

Eifer  moved me  up in three Tourneys , to put me even .  I have two more entries to watch, with Brady and three  Pats on Monday night.    beer  Hope you had some luck Egor.. beer
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« Reply #58 on: November 23, 2015, 05:53:25 AM »

Cashing in the one that Newt was my QB  -- but Freeman going out 1st quarter with concussion killed all my rosters.

This time of year it's good to start putting together some crazy-seeming contrarian rosters.
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GreenFish
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« Reply #59 on: November 23, 2015, 04:53:12 PM »

This Guy won $100,000.00  with this Team for $3.00 entry.     I noticed a lot of the winning teams picked  Thomas Rawls . I had never heard much of him or seen one "Guru"  mention his name.   You may be right about looking hard and deep and beyond the so called "Guru" choices.   thanks beer


Rank: 1st
Scoring   FPTS
 
QB   T.J. Yates   0.1%   
NYJ 17 HOU 24
   2 PaTD, 229 PaYds, 1 FUM, -5 RuYds   15.66

RB   Thomas Rawls   1.1%   
SF 13 SEA 29
   1 RuTD, 209 RuYds, 1 100+Rush, 1 RecTD, 46 RecYds, 3 REC   43.5

RB   Jonathan Stewart   9.5%   
WAS 16 CAR 44
   103 RuYds, 1 100+Rush, 1 RecTD, 12 RecYds, 1 REC   21.5

WR   Dez Bryant   10.7%   
DAL 24 MIA 14
   1 RecTD, 45 RecYds, 4 REC   14.5

WR   DeAndre Hopkins   2.7%   
NYJ 17 HOU 24
   2 RecTD, 118 RecYds, 5 REC, 1 100+Rec   31.8

WR   Julio Jones   27.2%   
IND 24 ATL 21
   160 RecYds, 9 REC, 1 100+Rec   28

TE   Jacob Tamme   7.8%   
IND 24 ATL 21
   16 RecYds, 1 REC   2.6

FLEX   Terrance Williams   0.7%   
DAL 24 MIA 14
   1 RecTD, 79 RecYds, 4 REC   17.9

DST   Buccaneers    2.0%   
TB 45 PHI 17
   3 SACK, 3 INT, 1 DFR, 1 DefTD, 1 14-20 PA   18
   
Total Fantasy Points: 193.46
« Last Edit: November 23, 2015, 05:30:09 PM by GreenFish » Logged

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