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ykcip75
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« on: June 04, 2017, 08:35:39 PM »

"Beginner's luck", "luck of the beginner", we often hear these terms in the world of poker. But few people believe it, while the luck of the beginner is a real phenomenon.

The false arguments

Poker is rigged

Some people believe that the rooms will voluntarily encourage new players by rigging decks in their favor. While it is true that most rooms have a policy of preserving recreational players, for example with spins & go or anonymous tables, there is no reason to believe that they would take the absurd risk of cheating.

The reversed skill

This is the favorite argument of lucky beginners, who imagine that their lack of knowledge gives them an edge. It gives a "yeah my opponent knows thousands of classical patterns, but against me it doesn't work because I am out of these schemas".

The absence of pressure

In a pro vs beginner game, the beginner would play released "at worst if I lose it's normal" while the pro would suffer all the pressure "I can still not lose against a beginner". This might be true with some people in some areas, but it's generally deadly wrong, especially in poker. Good luck to the fish who wants to stress Negreanu.

Real arguments

Unlucky ones stop

You go to the casino and lack of luck there is no opened poker table. For the first time in your life, you decide to play roulette. Your neighbor begins the conversation and you explain that you have never played it but that the session is going well and that you are largely positive. With a knowing connoisseur, he replies "It's normal, all beginners are lucky". He himself remembers having had a lot in his early days. Calmly, you explain to him that it is absurd and that it is not because both of you had the beginner's luck that it is necessary to generalize. To make sure, he proposes to you to make a survey in the casino. The overwhelming majority of players claim to have been lucky beginners ... Is this a conspiracy?
The explanation is simple: a casino is composed of a majority of players who were lucky in their early days because those who had not never set their foot in a casino often !

Overexposure and confirmation bias

At the 2015 WSOP, Christian Pham had a little surprise when, at the beginning of a $ 1500 event, the dealer distributed 5 cards to him. He thought he'd signed up for a Holdem tournament, the only variant he knew, but it was a 2-7 triple draw. His neighbor quickly explained to him the rules' 2-3-4-5-7 it's the nuts and 2-3-4-6-7 the second nuts. "Pham won the event in front of his 216 opponents.
Even non-specialized newspapers have titled "Beginner's Luck: he mistakenly enters the poker world championship and wins the title without knowing the rules."
Obviously, no one has spoken of the hundreds of beginners who have registered at various WSOP events and have been eliminated on day 1. Let's also note that Pham is a pro player of Holdem, which gives a certain edge compared to all beginners.

Generally speaking, there is a confirmation bias: as soon as you see a beginner win, we talk about the luck of the beginner, when a beginner loses, we say that it is normal and not "oh it's weird, he didn't have the Beginner's Luck ".

Regression to the mean.

Everyone knows that in the end, luck and bad luck balance. We can conclude that if a beginner is not necessarily extremely lucky, any extremely lucky player can only be a beginner. If a player boasts of having only experienced positive sessions, you can be sure that he or she begins and therefore, contrary to what he thinks, that he should not be strong.

We do not talk about the luck of the pro.

When Fedor Holz wins a tournament, you can be sure of two things: he played great and he was lucky, because even him needs it to win an MTT. But of course, we will talk about the "genius Fedor Holz" and not the "Extremely lucky Fedor Holz".
On the other hand, as soon as a beginner wins a hand, especially if he has made a mistake, obviously it can not be attributed to his skill and so we speak of luck.
There are more beginners than experts ...
... and therefore more lucky newbies than lucky experts. If you make a small cash game with 5 or 6 buddies, all beginners, you are clearly EV+, but it is likely that the biggest winner of the evening, especially if you play a few hands, is a beginner.

A game more high variance.

By their bad decisions, the beginners expose themselves more to luck. For example a beginner can pay without the odds of a draw and get his card, while a reg would fold. On the same number of hands, a beginner will have a priori more opportunities to be lucky than a reg.

Interesting article by petiteglise (poker-academie.com)
« Last Edit: June 06, 2017, 09:16:47 AM by ykcip75 » Logged
johngr
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« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2017, 11:06:52 AM »

there is no reason to believe that they would take the absurd risk of cheating.

They have ABSOLUTEly done so in the past. There is a profit-increasing motive to deal action flops and a cash flow-improving motive to handicap better players. If it's possible to get away with it undetected, then at least some poker rooms will. And it's possible to do both of the above without being detectable unless you have complete hand histories for every player from every hand.
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ykcip75
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« Reply #2 on: September 05, 2017, 10:05:20 PM »

They have ABSOLUTEly done so in the past. There is a profit-increasing motive to deal action flops and a cash flow-improving motive to handicap better players. If it's possible to get away with it undetected, then at least some poker rooms will. And it's possible to do both of the above without being detectable unless you have complete hand histories for every player from every hand.

But without concrete facts "there is no reason to believe that they would take the absurd risk of cheating."
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johngr
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« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2017, 03:20:07 PM »

But without concrete facts "there is no reason to believe that they would take the absurd risk of cheating."
With the only conclusive evidence of such cheating in particular being hand histories from every player and thus unobtainable, the idea that the risk is "absurd" is also without support.
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ykcip75
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« Reply #4 on: September 08, 2017, 08:05:57 PM »

With the only conclusive evidence of such cheating in particular being hand histories from every player and thus unobtainable, the idea that the risk is "absurd" is also without support.

I understand your point because I believe like you that every huge business companies has their dark secrets.

But I will learn you some things about cheating :

1. As long as you are not caught commiting a crime you are not a criminal.
2. If you decide to cheat :
   - Do not think twice or more if you do Don't cheat ! Because if you did and you cheated your will ruin your life. (remorse, consequence of your cheat etc...)
   - Never tell anyone about it not even your best friend not even your family and not even yourself you must bring this alone to the grave, because if you do your cheating is gonna be revealed one day by accident or by betrayal.
   - Never be caught !

Let's consider the poker site is cheating...A poker site is a big organization. So, many people are aware of this that increase the chances of being revealed one day by accident or by betrayal just wait it's not gonna be today or tomorrow but this will happen.
Even if your site is rigged you continue to play because sometimes the site rig their draws at your advantage and other times the site rig their draws at your disadvantage then it makes it somewhere not rigged and you have accepted this if not you would have quit.

That is why :

there is no reason to believe that they would take the absurd risk of cheating.

As a poker player the only thing you can do is to work your way to win uncontested pots.
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Mrphil
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2017, 03:58:36 AM »

Ykcip75, you do realize that johngr capitalized ABSOLUTE in the word absolutely in a previous post because Absolute Poker DID get caught years ago cheating, correct?

They were big at the time and got caught by someone leaking hands by accident. I wouldn't put it past sites to still cheat.

I'm very suspicious of zone poker on ignition. Please see this thread to learn why.
http://bonusbots.com/support/index.php/topic,9945.0.html
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johngr
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2017, 08:04:14 AM »

Ykcip75, you do realize that johngr capitalized ABSOLUTE in the word absolutely in a previous post because Absolute Poker DID get caught years ago cheating, correct?

ULTIMATEly, he's going to believe what he believes and so are we  Grin
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ykcip75
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2017, 10:26:42 AM »

Ykcip75, you do realize that johngr capitalized ABSOLUTE in the word absolutely in a previous post because Absolute Poker DID get caught years ago cheating, correct?

They were big at the time and got caught by someone leaking hands by accident. I wouldn't put it past sites to still cheat.

I'm very suspicious of zone poker on ignition. Please see this thread to learn why.
http://bonusbots.com/support/index.php/topic,9945.0.html

I already know this you didn't learn me anything there...
Here you only throw me case of SU cheat which only confirms the fact that some people abuse their rights.
When you suspect the poker sites of rigging the distribution which is totally on a different level technically more difficult, exploitable with a good observation, there are a lot external parameters the site doesn't control.
It's been since the first only online poker site that some people are trying to objectively prove this to finally destroy their theory themselves.

he's going to believe what he believes and so are we  Grin

Unfortunately that's how LIFE is.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2017, 10:43:15 AM by ykcip75 » Logged
johngr
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2017, 10:40:23 AM »

Suspicion ≠ accusation.

The only assertions from me or Mr. Phil are

>poker rooms have cheated in the past
>there is obvious motivation to do so
>whether the reward is worth the risk is calculation in the minds of those running the poker rooms who have more information than we do and whom none of us has ever met
>therefore, it's possible (and not "absurd" to believe it's possible) that some are doing it now

I stopped playing on the old Yavapi (or however you call it) network, not because a bad beat or two made me suspect they were cheating but rather because I got bored one day and read the t/c's and right there in them were that the board cards are dealt from an infinite deck rather than determined at the start of the hand.
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ykcip75
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2017, 12:06:36 PM »

Suspicion ≠ accusation.

The only assertions from me or Mr. Phil are

>poker rooms have cheated in the past
>there is obvious motivation to do so
>whether the reward is worth the risk is calculation in the minds of those running the poker rooms who have more information than we do and whom none of us has ever met
>therefore, it's possible (and not "absurd" to believe it's possible) that some are doing it now

I stopped playing on the old Yavapi (or however you call it) network, not because a bad beat or two made me suspect they were cheating but rather because I got bored one day and read the t/c's and right there in them were that the board cards are dealt from an infinite deck rather than determined at the start of the hand.

Edited the abuse of language !
Now apparently the deck is countinously shuffled but if you suspect something on the distribution you can take advantage of it even if it's not exactly your suspicion you can have a good advantage.
I know they can cheat but I probably feel that possibility less than you because I play trash hands too and sometimes they have their winning period when I lose with AA or KK it's like more like a payback for have having crushed a JJ with 49 suited.
Now If you are tight agressive player who automatically fold trash and only plays the top cards, you don't have them often and if the few times you have them, you lose with them the suspicion comes a little bit faster.
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