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Mrphil
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« on: March 17, 2017, 11:31:19 PM »

My brain isn't working today, but I seem to not understanding an easy way to calculate exact pot odds with the bot.

Since the bot only considers the current size of the pot and the opponent's bet in the "potsize" calculation, how is this precisely done since our own amounttocall SHOULD be added to the potsize when making a pot odds calculation?

I've figured out how to do this for limit poker using a convoluted calculation based on the potsize being at least a certain size depending on what we are drawing for, but I am only able to calculate this due to limit poker only having 1 BB bets on the flop and 2 BB bets on turn/river. This wouldn't work for NL, where the betsize could change.

Does anyone know a simple way? (and no, amounttocall <= XX% Potsize is not what I'm looking for since this does not take into account the amount we need to call in the potsize calculation).

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Egor
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« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2017, 11:47:34 PM »

Quote
and no, amounttocall <= XX% Potsize is not what I'm looking for since this does not take into account the amount we need to call in the potsize calculation

OK but you know this, so what's the problem?

I mean the numbers are right there....
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Mrphil
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« Reply #2 on: March 18, 2017, 12:07:53 AM »

I'm saying for NL, how would it be calculated?

Let's say theoretically we are drawing to a hand where we hit 20% of the time to win.

We can't just do, "when amounttocall <= 20% Potsize Call Force" because the potsize variable only takes into consideration the opponent's bet and not what the potsize will be when we call.

The pot odds calculation would be the equivalent of "when amounttocall <= 20% (potsize+amounttocall) Call Force" which doesn't exist.

Is there an easy way to do this that I'm not understanding?
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« Reply #3 on: March 18, 2017, 12:14:32 AM »

Quote
because the potsize variable only takes into consideration the opponent's bet and not what the potsize will be when we call.

Incorrect, potsize = the current pot in the middle + the opponent's uncalled bet

villains bet may not be in the middle yet but it is counted in potsize
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Mrphil
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« Reply #4 on: March 18, 2017, 12:29:19 AM »

I understand that, but it doesn't calculate our amount that we need to put in to match the bet for the potsize amount.

Let's take my 20% example.

Let's say villain bet 5 BB into a pot of 15 BB and we needed to know whether we should call the 5 BB with 20% chance of hitting nut draw.

If we used "amounttocall <= 20% Potsize Call Force" the calculation would compare "5BB" to "<=20% 20 BB" , and it WOULDN'T CALL since 20% of 20 BB is 4BB.

However, this is incorrect, because pot odds should take into account the potsize AFTER we call. Which means the comparison SHOULD be "5BB" to "<= 20% (20BB + 5BB for our call)". This would make the bot call since 5BB = %20 of 25BB.

I'm not sure if this is unclear. I understand that the potsize takes into account the opponent's uncalled bet, but it doesn't take into account ours, and I'm trying to see how that should be incorporated into pot odds determination.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2017, 01:16:58 AM by Mrphil » Logged

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Egor
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« Reply #5 on: March 18, 2017, 04:53:58 AM »

why would an odds figure include money we have to contribute?
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Mrphil
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« Reply #6 on: March 18, 2017, 06:46:56 AM »

Umm..isn't that how pot odds are calculated?

I'll give a different example:
Say we are on the turn and have a flush draw. This means our "win" odds are 4.1: 1 or (19.6%).

If we face a 5 BB bet into a pot of 17BB, the opponent's bet is included and our pot odds are 22:5 or 4.4:1 or (18.5%). We should call since our win odds are greater than our pot odds.

^if you disagree with the above, please explain because all of the poker sites/books I know calculate pot odds this way.

Now let's look at the above from a bot perspective:

If the opponent bets 5 BB into a pot that is 17 BB, the bot will read the amount to call as 5BB, and the potsize as 22 BB.

The calculation for "amounttocall <= 20% potsize call force" would then be "5 <= 20% 22BB" which would not activate due to 20% of 22 being 4.4. We would fold a hand which we should call due to correct pot odds described above.

Now, what SHOULD have happened for the calculation would be "amounttocall <= 20% (potsize +amounttocall) call force" which would then be "5 <=20% 27BB" which would call since 27BB X .2 is 5.4. However, there is not an easy way to do this.

Basically, the potsize variable the way it is doesn't account for proper pot odds. While it is including the opponent's bet, it isn't including what the total pot would be from our call.
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Mrphil
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« Reply #7 on: March 18, 2017, 07:11:18 AM »

"The following site spells this out a little more clear: http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/mathematics/pot-odds/

Compare with pot odds:
Our opponent has bet $30 making the pot $90. This means we have to call $30 to stand a chance of winning $120.

As you can see we have to add our own bet that we will call onto the size of the pot to find the total pot size. This part is very important, as finding the percentage of $30 in a $90 pot will give a very different result that the percentage of $30 in a $120 pot. Using basic mathematics we know that $30 is 25% of the $120.
Pot odds = 25%"

If the bot were to calculate a bet of $30 to make the total pot $90, the bot would currently calculate pot odds as 33.33%. However, this isn't right. It SHOULD also account for total size of the pot after our call and the pot odds are actually 25%.

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« Reply #8 on: March 18, 2017, 07:49:57 AM »

yeah well the bot doesn't calculate pot odds, you do

so you tell it to call if you like the amounttocall < xx% potsize, in whatever twisted math you care to use to assign the XX% figure, knowing that the pot includes all money on the table before you call

if the pot is 90 and amounttocall is 30 you are getting 3-1 odds for the call by my math, but you do whatever math floats your boat
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Charlie31
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« Reply #9 on: March 18, 2017, 08:00:45 AM »



Let's say villain bet 5 BB into a pot of 15 BB and we needed to know whether we should call the 5 BB with 20% chance of hitting nut draw.

If we used "amounttocall <= 20% Potsize Call Force" the calculation would compare "5BB" to "<=20% 20 BB" , and it WOULDN'T CALL since 20% of 20 BB is 4BB.


5BB into 15BB would equal an ATC of 25%. You need to convert the betsize: (5BB*100)/20 = 25. It's best if you get a chart that tells you your equity depending on villains betsize and the converted ATC it equals.
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Sleeper
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« Reply #10 on: March 18, 2017, 08:52:08 AM »

I did make a post about this,
Quote:

On Page 53 of the PPL Guide,
There is a table that relates Opponents Bet Size as a % of Pot size, to the Amount to call as a % of Pot Size.

The following table relates those figures to Pot Odds.

So we can say,

When AmountToCall <=  33% PotSize Call Force.

We know we are getting  3:1 Pot odds.

Maybe obvious to some, but took me a while to figure out.

Bet Size %    Amount To Call %    Pot Odds Ratio    Pot Odds %
20                   17                           6.00                  14
25                   20                           5.00                  17
30                   23                           4.33                  19
40                   29                           3.50                  22
50                   33                           3.00                  25
60                   38                           2.67                  27
75                   43                           2.33                  30
80                   44                           2.25                  31
90                   47                           2.11                  32
100                 50                           2.00                  33
125                 56                           1.80                  36
150                 60                           1.67                  38
200                 67                           1.50                  40

Example:

Pot = 100
Bet = 50
Total Pot size now 150
Amount to call = 50

Amount to call Ratio = 150:50 = 3:1 Pot odds

Amount to call % Pot Size = 50/150 = 1/3 = ~33%

Pot Odds % = Pot Size = 100 Pot + 50 Bet + 50 Call = 200
Pot Odds % = 50/200 = 1/4 = 25%

Your example above would be:

Pot = 17
Bet = 5
Total pot now 22.

Amount to call ratio = 22:5 = 4.4:1

Amount to call % Pot size = 5/22 = ~22%

Pot odds % = 17 Pot + 5 Bet + 5 Call = 27
Pot odds % = 5/27 = ~18.5

« Last Edit: March 18, 2017, 01:53:32 PM by Sleeper » Logged
polarbear
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« Reply #11 on: March 18, 2017, 10:20:49 AM »

Wouldn't it be really cool if we could do simple calculations in PPL?

Code:
when amounttocall / (potsize + amounttocall) ...
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Mrphil
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« Reply #12 on: March 18, 2017, 03:36:38 PM »

Egor, please read charlie and sleeper's posts above me. They understand my point, and it has helped me.

Basically, I will have to do a conversion for pot odds each time.

It would be nice if we could have a new variable for the bot which would be something like "potodds". The potodds variable would equal "Potsize + Amounttocall."

We could then code like this for a 20% chance of hitting a hand: when amounttocall <= 20% Potodds Call Force

The way we currently have to code for a 20% chance of hitting a hand is: amounttocall < = 25% potsize Call Force

I was asking if there was an easy way to do this, but I will have to use Sleeper's chart.
Thank you Sleeper.
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Egor
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« Reply #13 on: March 18, 2017, 06:29:27 PM »

The problem is I completely disagree with the notion that your call is part of pot odds. What you have to call is not part of what you stand to gain on your investment -- it is only your investment back, so not part of 'odds' you are getting on the investment.
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Mrphil
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« Reply #14 on: March 18, 2017, 07:18:53 PM »

Please see my post #7 above. When calculating pot odds PERCENTAGES, the total size of the pot after we would call IS considered in the calculation.

Pot odds of 3:1 is 25%, not 33.33%. 33.33% would be if we just considered the opponent bet and the size of the pot after the opponent bet. We also need to consider the size of the pot after we would call. We are risking 1 to win 4, not 1 to win 3.

To currently code for 25% pot odds, we would need to do "when amounttocall <= 33% Potsize Call Force".

Instead, it would be easier to have a potodds variable so we could just do "when amounttocall <=25% potodds Call Force", with no need for conversion. Potodds in this case would be equal to "potsize + amounttocall."

For now, I will have to use sleeper's table to figure out the correct potsize comparison.
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« Reply #15 on: March 18, 2017, 07:44:41 PM »

That's not how the bot calculates amounttocall, though

villain bets 50 into pot of 100

in this situation the bot needs to make a decision for, amounttocall = 33.333% potsize

so I know I am getting 3-1 odds on a call if I state amounttocall < 34% potsize

we are risking 1 to win 3 because our call is not part of the odds we are being laid
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« Reply #16 on: March 18, 2017, 07:55:33 PM »

I mean calls are simple like that

A raise, on the other hand, is more complicated and yeah you need to take into account your call
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Mrphil
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« Reply #17 on: March 18, 2017, 08:17:08 PM »

We are both on the same page, and we are both correct. I just need you to see why it is frustrating to not have a potodds variable.

If the villain bet 50 into a pot of 100 and makes the pot 150, you are right (however, if you were saying the pot would total 100, then it would be wrong).

The odds would be 3:1 , and the way to code for this is "amounttocall < 34% potsize call force" .

However, the pot odds percentage in this case is 25%. The pot odd percentage of 3:1 is 25%.

Now, what if I ONLY gave you the win odds percentage which is available from a table.
If I only knew this information, I would have to convert the 25% pot odds back to an amounttcall of < 33% Potsize, and I would have to convert every pot odd percentage to a separate amounttocall percentage. In fact, this is what I am going to have to do using sleeper's table.

A potodds variable would help us when we know the winning odds for a draw.

If I know the odds of making a hand on the next street are 20%, it is much easier to code the following way:
"when amounttocall <=20% Potodds Call Force" , where potodds equates to (potsize + amounttocall)

The current correct way of coding for when we will make a winning hand 20% of the time on the next street is like this:
"when amounttocall <= 25% Potsize Call Force"

If we use your example:
You would code the 3:1 with a 25% pot odds as "when amounttocall < 34% Potsize Call Force", where I would code it with a potodds variable as "when amounttocall <=25% potodds Call Force" where potodds would equal potsize+amounttocall.

It just gets confusing. If I calculate/know the winning percentage of a draw/hand, I will need to convert each time to code for the proper amounttocall <= XX% Potsize Ratio.

« Last Edit: March 18, 2017, 08:51:11 PM by Mrphil » Logged

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Egor
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« Reply #18 on: March 18, 2017, 08:56:50 PM »

Well I don't care for those pot-odds tables then. Much easier to just use a chart of draw odds. Of course, the only real draws ever worth playing are all about 2-1 against (straights and flushes) so who even needs that chart. and a lot of those should be raises anyway to add some fold equity.

Honestly "pot odds" are not one of the more important factors in today's game.
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Mrphil
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« Reply #19 on: March 18, 2017, 09:15:11 PM »

It's actually not the pot odds that are messing with me, it is utilizing the win odds (which take into account the pot odds).

I'm working on a limit profile where it is much more crucial.

Using the chart posted above by sleeper will help me with win odds:

1. If I know that I have win odds of 17% for a draw I will have to code the following way currently:
- When amounttocall < 21% potsize Call Force
My recommendation for a potodds variable would make this "when amounttocall <= 17% Potodds Call Force"

2. If I know that I have win odds of 33% for a draw I will have to code the following way currently:
- When amounttocall < 51% Potsize Call Force
My recommendation for a potodds variable would make this "when amounttocall <= 33% Potodds Call Force"

It would just be a lot easier to code for draws where we know the win percentages.
Would it be possible to create a variable that would account for "potsize + amounttocall"?

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